[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 2 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Low
Flares: C class flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 1 Jul. The largest
flare of the UT day was a C1.4 event peaking at 22:51 UT. Solar
flare activity is expected to remain low during the next 48 hours.
Coronal Hole 675 is located and the SE quadrant and is approaching
the central meridian. There are presently no Earthward directed
CMEs. The solar wind speed is presently about 400 km/s and is
expected to gradually increase today. The magnitude of the IMF
is presently about 5 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating
in the range -4 to +4 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111100
Cocos Island 2 11112100
Darwin 1 11111000
Townsville 3 12211001
Learmonth 2 01112100
Alice Springs 1 01111000
Norfolk Island 1 11011010
Culgoora 2 11111101
Gingin 2 11112100
Camden 2 11111101
Canberra 2 30001000
Melbourne 2 11111010
Launceston 2 11111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 4 22222100
Mawson 9 33322211
Davis 5 12322200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2321 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 6 Quiet
03 Jul 6 Quiet
04 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 1 Jul and they
are expected to remain mostly quiet during the next 3 days. However,
the solar wind speed is expected to increase today and conditions
may become unsettled.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed during 1 Jul. The conditions are trending gradually
back toward near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere.
They are also recovering in the Southern Hemisphere. Conditions
are expected to trend gradually back toward near predicted monthly
values during the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were generally
depressed throughout the Australian region during 1 Jul. The
conditions were more strongly depressed at low latitude stations
and recovering at mid-latitude locations. For example, the daily
T index for Darwin was 40 and for Brisbane 70. The conditions
are expected to be depressed at low latitude stations again today,
and mildly depressed at mid latitude locations. Hobart passed
under an ionospheric trough at 15 UT this morning.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 25600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list