[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 2 09:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  Low

Flares: C class flare

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 1 Jul. The largest 
flare of the UT day was a C1.4 event peaking at 22:51 UT. Solar 
flare activity is expected to remain low during the next 48 hours. 
Coronal Hole 675 is located and the SE quadrant and is approaching 
the central meridian. There are presently no Earthward directed 
CMEs. The solar wind speed is presently about 400 km/s and is 
expected to gradually increase today. The magnitude of the IMF 
is presently about 5 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating 
in the range -4 to +4 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111100
      Cocos Island         2   11112100
      Darwin               1   11111000
      Townsville           3   12211001
      Learmonth            2   01112100
      Alice Springs        1   01111000
      Norfolk Island       1   11011010
      Culgoora             2   11111101
      Gingin               2   11112100
      Camden               2   11111101
      Canberra             2   30001000
      Melbourne            2   11111010
      Launceston           2   11111110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                4   22222100
      Mawson               9   33322211
      Davis                5   12322200

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2321 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul     6    Quiet
03 Jul     6    Quiet
04 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 1 Jul and they 
are expected to remain mostly quiet during the next 3 days. However, 
the solar wind speed is expected to increase today and conditions 
may become unsettled.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed during 1 Jul. The conditions are trending gradually 
back toward near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere. 
They are also recovering in the Southern Hemisphere. Conditions 
are expected to trend gradually back toward near predicted monthly 
values during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jul    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were generally 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 1 Jul. The 
conditions were more strongly depressed at low latitude stations 
and recovering at mid-latitude locations. For example, the daily 
T index for Darwin was 40 and for Brisbane 70. The conditions 
are expected to be depressed at low latitude stations again today, 
and mildly depressed at mid latitude locations. Hobart passed 
under an ionospheric trough at 15 UT this morning.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    25600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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