[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 1 09:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 30 Jun. AR 2376 
(N13E57) produced the largest flare of the day, a C1.4 event 
peaking at 12:43 UT. Solar flare activity is expected to remain 
low during the next 48 hours. GONG H alpha images show a large 
solar prominence straddling the NE limb and another prominence 
just beyond the SE limb. These and other developing filaments 
may rotate into more geoeffective locations next week. There 
are presently no Earthward directed CMEs. The solar wind speed 
is presently about 370 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF decreased 
to near zero during 13 UT and is presently about 4 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12100211
      Cocos Island         2   12100110
      Darwin               2   12110110
      Townsville           3   12100212
      Learmonth            3   12110211
      Alice Springs        2   12100210
      Norfolk Island       2   11000112
      Culgoora             3   12100212
      Gingin               4   12200221
      Camden               3   12100212
      Canberra             1   01000111
      Melbourne            2   02100210
      Launceston           4   12102221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                9   23200341
      Mawson              17   23221255
      Davis                9   23321223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1122 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul     6    Quiet
02 Jul     5    Quiet
03 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 30 June and 
they are expected to remain quiet during the next 3 days. However, 
the arrival of a weak Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) might 
cause brief intervals of unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Depressed      Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Depressed      Normal         Normal
02 Jul      Depressed      Normal         Normal
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: The geomagnetic storms of last week (22 to 25 Jun) produced 
a major negative ionospheric storm, resulting in depressed conditions 
for HF radio wave propagation. The conditions are trending gradually 
back toward near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere. 
They are also beginning to show signs of recovery in the Southern 
Hemisphere. Conditions are expected to trend gradually back toward 
near predicted monthly values during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jun    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jul    65    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were generally 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 30 Jun. The 
conditions were more strongly depressed at low latitude stations 
and starting to recover at mid-latitude locations. For example, 
the daily T index for Darwin was 42 and for Canberra 57. The 
conditions are expected to be depressed again today, but trend 
gradually back toward near predicted monthly values during the 
next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 403 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    78200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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