[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 1 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 30 Jun. AR 2376
(N13E57) produced the largest flare of the day, a C1.4 event
peaking at 12:43 UT. Solar flare activity is expected to remain
low during the next 48 hours. GONG H alpha images show a large
solar prominence straddling the NE limb and another prominence
just beyond the SE limb. These and other developing filaments
may rotate into more geoeffective locations next week. There
are presently no Earthward directed CMEs. The solar wind speed
is presently about 370 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF decreased
to near zero during 13 UT and is presently about 4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12100211
Cocos Island 2 12100110
Darwin 2 12110110
Townsville 3 12100212
Learmonth 3 12110211
Alice Springs 2 12100210
Norfolk Island 2 11000112
Culgoora 3 12100212
Gingin 4 12200221
Camden 3 12100212
Canberra 1 01000111
Melbourne 2 02100210
Launceston 4 12102221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 9 23200341
Mawson 17 23221255
Davis 9 23321223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1122 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 6 Quiet
02 Jul 5 Quiet
03 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 30 June and
they are expected to remain quiet during the next 3 days. However,
the arrival of a weak Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) might
cause brief intervals of unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Depressed Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Depressed Normal Normal
02 Jul Depressed Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The geomagnetic storms of last week (22 to 25 Jun) produced
a major negative ionospheric storm, resulting in depressed conditions
for HF radio wave propagation. The conditions are trending gradually
back toward near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere.
They are also beginning to show signs of recovery in the Southern
Hemisphere. Conditions are expected to trend gradually back toward
near predicted monthly values during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were generally
depressed throughout the Australian region during 30 Jun. The
conditions were more strongly depressed at low latitude stations
and starting to recover at mid-latitude locations. For example,
the daily T index for Darwin was 42 and for Canberra 57. The
conditions are expected to be depressed again today, but trend
gradually back toward near predicted monthly values during the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 78200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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