[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 30 10:30:56 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 1142UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity remains Moderate with a short duration
(20 minutes) M2 flare from region 2268(S10W07) peaking at 1142UT.
No CME was observed in association with this flare. This region
also produced a C8 flare and a longer duration (53 minutes) C6
flare peaking at 1953UT. LASCO coronagraphs are not yet available
to fully determine if this most recent flare produced a CME of
significance. Region 2277(N07E71) also produced numerous C class
flares over the period. ACE solar wind conditions indicate that
some influence of the coronal hole high speed stream remains
with fluctuation wind speed up to 450 km/s, Bt up to 10nT with
Bz oscillating. Further moderate wind speeds and magnetic field
strength is expected for the next few days. Solar activity is
expected to be mostly at low levels with some chance of continued
M class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 21122232
Cocos Island 6 21122231
Darwin 7 21122232
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 8 22122233
Alice Springs 6 21022132
Norfolk Island 6 21122132
Culgoora 8 2---213-
Gingin 8 21122242
Camden 7 21122232
Canberra 6 21122132
Launceston 8 21222233
Hobart 7 21222232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 11112332
Casey 22 35533242
Mawson 32 44333273
Davis 24 34444253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 80 (Active)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2132 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet to Unsettled under the
influence of a high speed solar wind stream. These conditions
are expected to continue for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values or mildly enhanced
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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