[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 31 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 1216UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at Moderate levels with 3 M class
flares over the previous 24 hours. Region 2268 produced an M1
flare peaking at 0044UT and a longer duration (1:06) M1 flare
peaking at 0536UT. Region 2277 also produced a very short (11
minutes) M2 flare peaking at 1216UT. No CMEs were seen in LASCO
coronagraphs in association with these or any other events. The
solar wind remains moderately disturbed with speeds around 450
km/s and Bt between 5-10 nT and Bz fluctuation between +/- 5nT.
Further M class flares are possible over the next few days and
the solar wind disturbance is expected to continue, possibly
becoming more disturbed from the 1st of Feb (UT).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22211132
Cocos Island 6 22211231
Darwin 6 2221113-
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 22221232
Alice Springs 6 22211132
Norfolk Island 5 22211022
Culgoora 9 2223--32
Gingin 8 22211242
Camden 6 22211123
Canberra 5 22211122
Launceston 8 23211133
Hobart 7 22211133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 22221232
Casey 26 45632233
Mawson 33 34422374
Davis 3 1-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 87 (Minor storm)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1101 1243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 12 Unsettled
01 Feb 12 Unsettled
02 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet to Unsettled due to a
continued high speed solar wind stream. These conditions are
expected to continue for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 67500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list