[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 29 10:30:36 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0441UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity reached Moderate levels in the past 24
hours with an M1 flare from region 2268(S10E01) peaking at 0441UT
followed closely by a C9 flare peaking at 0530UT. No CMEs were
seen in association with these flares in LASCO coronagraphs.
Another very short duration (8 minutes) M1 flare was produced
by region 2277(N07E75) peaking at 2137UT. No data is available
yet to assess any CMEs but given the regions location and short
duration of the event a geoeffective CME is not anticipated.
ACE solar wind measurements show a slowing of the wind to between
400-450 km/s by the end of the day. The Bt is around 7 nT with
close to zero Bz. This indicates the influence of the coronal
hole high speed stream is abating, however increased wind speeds
and magnetic field may still be seen over the next 1-2 days.
Solar activity is expected to be mostly at low levels with a
chance for M class flares over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22222101
Cocos Island 6 33221100
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 6 32222201
Alice Springs 5 22222101
Norfolk Island 4 21221011
Culgoora 4 21222101
Gingin 7 32322110
Camden 6 21322111
Canberra 4 22222100
Launceston 7 22332111
Hobart 6 22322101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 12344000
Casey 22 56431111
Mawson 23 54532134
Davis 15 34532111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 51 (Unsettled)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 60 (Unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2222 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet to Unsettled under the
influence of a high speed solar wind stream. These conditions
are expected to continue for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values or mildly enhanced
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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