[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 28 10:30:46 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with at most C2 xray
flares. ACE solar wind measurements are showing the clear signatures
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream with speed climbing
to just over 500 km/s, Bt up to 10nT and Bz fluctuating between
+/- 5 nT. These solar wind conditions are expected to continue
for the next 2 days. There remains the possibility of M class
flares from region 2268(S08E13).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 23322323
Cocos Island 7 22321222
Darwin 11 23322323
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 11 22322333
Alice Springs 9 22322322
Norfolk Island 11 23322233
Culgoora 10 23322223
Gingin 9 22222332
Camden 10 23322223
Canberra 10 23322223
Launceston 12 23322333
Hobart 10 23322322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 23223322
Casey 30 36642233
Mawson 26 44433255
Davis 24 24543235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 2334 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 12 Unsettled
29 Jan 12 Unsettled
30 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet to Unsettled under the
influence of a high speed solar wind stream. These conditions
are expected to continue for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 44500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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