[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 15 issued 2342 UT on 26 Jan 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 27 10:42:52 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity reached Moderate levels over the last
24 hours with an M1 X-ray flare from region 12268(S10E35). A
period of IMF southward of up to -15nT occurred between around
06UT and 11UT. This is likely due to a CIR ahead of the expected
high speed wind stream although the wind speed is currently remaining
below 400 km/s. Further mild Bz events may be expected over the
next 24-48 hours. Further M class flares may occur over the next
few days but conditions are most likely to be at Low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 14 33343322
Cocos Island 9 22332320
Darwin 14 23343323
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 13 23343322
Alice Springs 13 23343321
Norfolk Island 12 23343222
Culgoora 14 33343322
Gingin 16 33343430
Camden 14 33343322
Canberra 12 33333321
Launceston 16 33344322
Hobart 14 33334322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 21 22455331
Casey 29 35653322
Mawson 31 44453553
Davis 37 44565352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 12 Unsettled to Active
28 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with an active
period between 08-14UT. Unsettled conditions with a chance of
isolated Active periods are expected for the next 2 days before
returning to mostly Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next few days.
Depressions of up to 20% are being observed in Southern Australia
most probably due to overnight mild geomagnetic activity. This
may persist for the local daylight hours however it is not expected
to worsen as geomagnetic activity is not ongoing.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 45400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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