[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 26 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during Jan 25 UT. Minor B and
C class flares were recorded. AR 2688 still has the potential
to release a significant M class flare. Solar flare activity
is expected to be low, but with a chance of an M class flare,
during Jan 26-27. GONG H alpha images show a prominent filament
rotating through the geoeffective region of the solar disk. The
solar wind speed was about 350 km/s and the magnitude of the
IMF was about 5 nT for most of Jan 25. The solar wind speed has
increased slightly and the magnitude of the IMF has increased
to 10 nT during the previous 4 hours. The IMF Bz component has
been southward during the previous 2 hours. The bulk of the expected
episode of fast solar wind is directed south of the ecliptic
plane, but it may impact Earth during Jan 26-27.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Cocos Island 2 11010111
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 5 12------
Learmonth 5 21111113
Alice Springs 2 12010102
Norfolk Island 3 21010022
Culgoora 3 11110112
Gingin 5 21111213
Camden 4 12111112
Canberra 3 11110112
Launceston 6 22121213
Hobart 4 11111212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11011202
Casey 16 14532223
Mawson 10 14322222
Davis 14 -4433212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1112 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 6 Quiet
28 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region (K=1 to 2) during Jan 25. They may become unsettled today
due to the impact of a high speed solar wind stream, the bulk
of which is directed south of the ecliptic.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mildly
depressed in the Northern Hemisphere and near predicted monthly
values in the Southern Hemisphere during Jan 26 UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be near predicted monthly values during Jan 26-27.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 64200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list