[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 25 10:30:45 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 135/89 145/99
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Jan 24. AR
2268 produced three C class flares. The largest was a C2.0 event
peaking at 07:40 UT. AR 2268 may produce an M class flare during
the next 48 hours. Stereo EUVI images of far side activity suggest
the possibility of a significant increase in solar activity next
week as old AR 2253 and other regions rotate around the eastern
limb. GONG H alpha images recorded a filament eruption after
a minor flare in the Northern Hemisphere at about 17:40 UT. They
also show a prominent filament rotating through the geo-effective
region of the solar disk. The solar wind speed declined to about
350 km/s during Jan 24 and is presently fluctuating in the range
350-400 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been about 5 nT and
the Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in the range -5
nT to +4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11112222
Cocos Island 4 11012221
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville 6 21122222
Learmonth 5 12122221
Alice Springs 5 11112222
Norfolk Island 3 11111121
Culgoora 5 11112222
Gingin 7 11023322
Camden 5 11112222
Canberra 5 11112222
Launceston 7 12122223
Hobart 5 11122222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 01023211
Casey 14 24422323
Mawson 25 24223356
Davis 19 33343344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2321 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian
region (K=1 to 2) during Jan 24.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mildly
depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere during Jan
25 UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions were initially
mildly depressed but then near predicted monthly values during
Jan 24 UT. Conditions were most enhanced at Darwin where the
daily T index was 115. Conditions were least enhanced at Canberra
where the daily T index was 67. HF propagation conditions are
expected to be moderately depressed during Jan 25.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 74900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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