[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 24 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 135/89
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Jan 23. AR
2268 located near the eastern limb produced the largest flare of
the day, a C4.3 event peaking at 02:53 UT. It also produced a
C1.1 flare peaking at 12:37 UT and a C3.7 flare peaking at 16:00
UT. AR 2270 also produced a few minor C class flares. AR 2268
may produce an M class flare during the next 48 hours. GONG H
alpha images show a prominent filament approaching the center
of the visible solar disk. This feature should be monitored in
case it erupts. The ACE EPAM instrument is recording surges in
low energy proton flux at the time of this report. The solar
wind speed has been fluctuating in the range 400 km/s to 450
km/s and it may decrease today. Faster solar wind is expected
to arrive during Jan 25-26. The magnitude of the IMF has been
about 4-6 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating mostly
in the range -6 nT to +6 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Cocos Island 4 22111210
Darwin 7 32122222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 32122212
Alice Springs 8 23222222
Norfolk Island 6 22212122
Culgoora 6 22222211
Gingin 8 32221322
Camden 8 23222222
Canberra 7 23222221
Launceston 9 23322222
Hobart 8 23322221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 23313211
Casey 29 36642321
Mawson 19 54432322
Davis 15 33442331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2313 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 5 Quiet
25 Jan 6 Quiet
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
in the Australian region (K=1 to 3) during Jan 23. This is because
the solar wind speed leveled off and the magnitude of the IMF
decreased to about 4-6 nT. Faster solar wind expected to arrive
during Jan 25-26 may cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.
The ACE EPAM surges in proton flux is prognostic for enhance
geomagnetic activity during Jan 25-26.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be near predicted
monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere and moderately depressed
in the Southern Hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions recovered
to near predicted monthly values during Jan 23. The Cocos Island
region was an exception. The daily T index was only 35 because
of strong depressions for most of the first half of Jan 23. HF
propagation conditions are expected to be moderately depressed
today, Jan 24 UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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