[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 15 issued 2332 UT on 22 Jan 2015

Fri Jan 23 10:32:16 EST 2015

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1.4     0452UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 120/72

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was moderate during Jan 22. 
AR 2268 located on the eastern limb produced the largest flare  
of the day, a M1.4 event peaking at 04:52 UT. There were five 
C class flares during Jan 22. More C class flares are expected 
today. AR 2268 may produce another M class flare during the next 
48 hours. Solar activity will be low to moderate during Jan 23 
to 25. The solar wind speed is showing signs of declining from 
the peak values of yesterday. The solar wind speed is presently 
fluctuating in the range 400 km/s to 450 km/s. The magnitude 
of the IMF slowly declined from about 12 nT to 5 nT during Jan 
22. The IMF Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in the range 
-4 nT to +4 nT during the past 6 hours. Fast solar wind may arrive 
again during Jan 25-26.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32233122
      Cocos Island         8   32223121
      Darwin              10   32233222
      Townsville          11   33233123
      Learmonth           14   43234222
      Alice Springs        8   32223122
      Norfolk Island       7   22223122
      Culgoora             9   32233122
      Gingin              12   43223232
      Camden               9   32233122
      Canberra             9   32233122
      Launceston          16   43344222
      Hobart              12   32334222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    19   33255312
      Casey               30   55643232
      Mawson              33   55443255
      Davis               27   44454244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   1121 2443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan     5    Quiet
25 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (Kp=4) 
during 00 to 03 UT, Jan 22. Australian K indices reached 
4 at Tasmania and Western Australia. However, the geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled in the Australian region 
(K=1 to 3). The fast solar wind is starting to subside and the 
magnitude of the IMF has declined to 5 nT. The geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled during the 
next 48 hours.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Jan    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed, recovered as day progressed
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      106
Jan      89
Feb      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions were depressed 
during Jan 22. The conditions were strongly depressed at Darwin 
(T=20) and Townsville (T=21). Conditions improved across southern 
Australia as the day progressed, and the entire region, including 
Northern Australia, has almost recovered to near predicted monthly 
values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   117000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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