[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 15 issued 2331 UT on 21 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 22 10:31:57 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Five substantial C-class X-ray flares occurred during
Jan 21. The largest flare was a C9.9 event peaking at 11:42 UT.
Smaller B and C class flares also occurred throughout the day.
Much of the activity was associated with an unnamed Active Region
located just beyond the SE limb. This region may produce M-class
flares as it crosses the visible disk in coming days. The 3-day
outlook is for low to moderate solar activity. A Corotating Interaction
Region (CIR) arrived in the second half of Jan 20 UT. Faster
solar wind arrived in its wake during Jan 21. The solar wind
speed increased from about 300 km/s to a maximum of about 550
km/s. The magnitude of the IMF peaked at about 20 nT during Jan
21. The IMF Bz component briefly reached –15 nT at 16 UT. The
solar wind speed is presently in the range 450 to 500 km/s and
the magnitude of the IMF has decreased back to about 12 nT. The
Bz component has been mostly positive during the previous 4 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 23322333
Cocos Island 9 23312322
Darwin 12 33322323
Townsville 14 33322433
Learmonth 15 33323433
Alice Springs 9 22312323
Norfolk Island 10 23212333
Culgoora 10 23212333
Gingin 10 22223332
Camden 10 23212333
Canberra 9 22212333
Launceston 14 23323433
Hobart 12 12223433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 12213432
Casey 32 35653433
Mawson 22 23333553
Davis 18 24334433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1012 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 12 Unsettled
23 Jan 6 Quiet
24 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (Kp=4)
during Jan 21. They were mostly quiet to unsettled in the Australian
region (K=1 to 3). Tasmanian K indices reached 4 during 15-18
UT. The faster solar wind arriving at Earth will likely drive
further unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Active conditions are
possible if Bz swings southward for 2 or more hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be weakly
depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions were enhanced
at Cocos Island, Darwin and Learmonth (T=130 to 135) for most
of Jan 21. They were mostly near predicted monthly values or
slightly depressed further south. The conditions are depressed
by 10% to 40% at most Australian stations this morning. This
implies depressed conditions for the remainder of the day. HF
propagation conditions are expected to be normal at low latitude
stations, and near normal to depressed at mid-latitude stations
during Jan 22.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 19600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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