[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 21 10:30:39 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during Jan 20. AR 2267 produced
the strongest X-ray flare of the day, a C class event which is
in progress at the time of this report (23 UT). There was also
a weaker C1.0 event peaking at 05:11 UT. Solar activity is expected
to remain low during Jan 21-22. The solar wind speed declined
to nearly 260 km/s but has recovered to 300 km/s and is increasing
at the time of this report. The solar wind density increased
by an order of magnitude since 12 UT on Jan 20. The IMF Bz component
has been fluctuating in the range -6 nT to +6 nT and has been
northward for the past 4 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Cocos Island 1 10010011
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 3 21120012
Learmonth 2 11110012
Alice Springs 2 11110011
Norfolk Island 3 21110012
Culgoora 2 11110011
Gingin 2 21110001
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 2 11110011
Launceston 3 11220011
Hobart 2 11210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 10020000
Casey 13 35421011
Mawson 5 32222000
Davis 6 22332010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 5 Quiet
23 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region during Jan 20. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are possible
due to the arrival of faster solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be weakly
depressed in the Northern Hemisphere and near predicted monthly
values in the Southern Hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions were enhanced
during local night time hours. They were otherwise near predicted
monthly values during Jan 20. The largest recorded station T
index was T=134 for Sydney. Conditions are expected to be near
predicted monthly values during Jan 21-22.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 34300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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