[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 20 10:30:47 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during Jan 19. There were three
C class flares. AR 2266 produced the strongest flare, a C3.3
event peaking at 20:48 UT. Solar activity is expected to remain
low during Jan 20. The solar wind speed is presently about 300
km/s. The IMF Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in the
range -5 nT to +5 nT, but trended weakly southward during the
second half of Jan 19. The solar wind speed may start to increase
later today due to the arrival of faster flows associated with
a coronal hole. The increase in speed is expected to be modest.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11011122
Cocos Island 3 21010022
Darwin 4 21111122
Townsville 3 21011112
Learmonth 3 21011112
Alice Springs 2 10011112
Norfolk Island 2 10010022
Culgoora 2 10011121
Gingin 3 21011121
Camden 3 11011122
Canberra 0 00000010
Launceston 4 21112112
Hobart 3 11011112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 10011011
Casey 14 44331123
Mawson 11 42111234
Davis 6 22222221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region during Jan 19. The IMF Bz component trended weakly southward
during the second half of Jan 19. The solar wind speed may start
to increase today. Intervals of unsettled geomagnetic activity
are possible during the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be weakly
depressed in the Northern Hemisphere and enhanced to strongly
enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 10% to 40% for most of the day.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced with intervals of near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions were enhanced
at southern Australian stations, becoming strongly enhanced towards
the north of the region during Jan 19. For example, the local
station T index for Hobart was T=111, for Brisbane it was T=126,
and for Darwin it was T=143. Conditions are expected to remain
enhanced throughout the region during Jan 20. However, intervals
of near predicted monthly values will occur.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 34500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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