[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 17 10:30:45 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 flare from region 2260 (N09W86). No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed. The solar wind speed at ACE declined to below
400 km/s, while the IMF Bz component varied from -8 to +6 nT.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 23222012
Cocos Island 4 22221010
Darwin 8 23222023
Townsville 7 23222112
Learmonth 7 22232112
Alice Springs 6 23222012
Norfolk Island 6 23221021
Culgoora 6 23222012
Gingin 5 22222011
Camden 6 23222012
Canberra 5 23221002
Hobart 6 23222012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 23242011
Casey 31 56633122
Mawson 16 34433232
Davis 18 34543221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0021 3202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with storm level periods in the
Antarctic. Coronal hole effects are likely to result in quiet
to unsettled conditions for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect occasional disturbed ionospheric support in Antarctic
regions over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were either near predicted
monthly values with some enhancements in the north. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 99500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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