[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 18 10:30:51 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed at
ACE declined to around 350 km/s, while the IMF Bz component varied
between -6 and +5 nT. Very low to low activity is expected for
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 21111012
Cocos Island 2 11111011
Darwin 4 21121012
Townsville 4 21111112
Learmonth 3 22111001
Alice Springs 3 21111002
Norfolk Island 3 11110022
Culgoora 3 11111012
Gingin 4 22121002
Camden 4 12221012
Canberra 1 11110001
Launceston 5 22221112
Hobart 4 22221101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11020011
Casey 16 35432023
Mawson 20 45322125
Davis 12 24333122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1312 2011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 15 Quiet to active
19 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled
20 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected
to prevail until late on 18-Jan, with some active periods possible
into 19-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect occasional disturbed ionospheric support in Antarctic
regions on 19-Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were near predicted monthly
values with some enhancements in the north. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 83200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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