[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 16 10:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from region 2262 (S02W29) and region 2257 (beyond
the west limb). A filament liftoff from the northeast quadrant
does not appear to be Earth-directed. ACE low energy proton flux
increased, probably indicating imminent arrival of the 12-Jan
CME. The solar wind speed at ACE varied between 360-480 km/s
and the IMF Bz component between +/-7 nT. Two coronal holes will
move into a geoeffective position starting late on 16-Jan. Low
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 12223201
Cocos Island 4 12113100
Darwin 8 22224201
Townsville 8 12224211
Learmonth 10 22225201
Alice Springs 6 11224200
Norfolk Island 5 11222202
Culgoora 6 12223111
Gingin 7 21124201
Camden 6 12223211
Canberra 5 31213100
Hobart 6 13223200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 14 12216300
Casey 23 55533212
Mawson 10 23333301
Davis 15 34443211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1012 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 10 Quiet to Active
17 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet, with an active
period after 12UT probably due to an extended period of southward
Bz. Further active periods are expected with the arrival of the
12-Jan CME early on 16-Jan, followed by subsequent coronal hole
effects from late on 16-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect occasional disturbed ionospheric support in Antarctic
regions over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were either near predicted
monthly values or slightly enhanced. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced on 16-Jan
and near monthly predicted values on 17-18 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 62200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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