[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 15 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 1258UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with region 2257 (N07W93) producing an M2 flare. Region 2259
(S14W09) became more complex. No CMEs were observed. The solar
wind speed varied between 360-450 km/s and the IMF Bz component
between +/-6 nT. Low solar activity is expected for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 21113111
Cocos Island 3 11212110
Darwin 6 22123112
Townsville 6 21213122
Learmonth 6 32113111
Alice Springs 5 21113111
Norfolk Island 5 21113112
Culgoora 5 21113121
Gingin 5 21213111
Camden 6 21213121
Canberra 3 11113010
Hobart 6 22223111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 11125210
Casey 19 45433222
Mawson 17 43334332
Davis 17 33434332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1101 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 12 Quiet to active
16 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions
are expected until late on 15 Jan, when some active periods are
possible due to a predicted CME glancing blow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect occasional disturbed ionospheric support in Antarctic
regions over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were either near predicted
monthly values or moderately enhanced. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced on 15-Jan
and near monthly predicted values on 16-17 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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