[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 14 10:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5/-- 0424UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours, with
a double-peaked M5/M4 flare from region 2257 (N06W70). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed, though analysis of a CME from 12-Jan suggests
a possible glancing blow late on 15-Jan. The solar wind speed
varied in the range 380-480 km/s. The IMF Bz component varied
between +/-7 nT. Solar activity is expected to be low for the
next 3 days, although there is a chance of stronger flares from
region 2257 as it rotates off the disc.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22213222
Cocos Island 5 13112211
Darwin 9 23113223
Townsville 9 23223222
Learmonth 9 22223322
Alice Springs 6 12123212
Norfolk Island 6 22212222
Culgoora 8 23213222
Gingin 7 22213222
Camden 8 23213222
Canberra 5 12112212
Hobart 8 22223222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 21124222
Casey 26 46533322
Mawson 18 33334334
Davis 21 34435332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1111 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan 12 Quiet to Active
16 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions
are expected on 14-Jan, with some active periods possible from
late on 15 Jan, due to a predicted CME glancing blow.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were either near predicted
monthly values or moderately enhanced (mostly in the north).
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced
on 14-15 Jan. Expect occasional disturbed ionospheric support
in Antarctic regions over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list