[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jan 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 13 10:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 159/113


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jan             14 Jan             15 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class flares from several regions. The largest was a C7 flare 
from region 2255 (S17W64). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 
The solar wind speed remained mostly between 400-500 km/s. The 
IMF Bz component varied between +/-6 nT. Region 2260 (N09W32) 
is growing. Region 2249 (S11) which previously produced M-flares 
is due to return around 12 Jan. Solar activity is expected to 
be low to moderate for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12223222
      Cocos Island         5   12122211
      Darwin               7   12222223
      Townsville           7   12222322
      Learmonth            9   22223322
      Alice Springs        7   02223222
      Norfolk Island       7   12122232
      Culgoora             7   12223222
      Gingin               8   22123312
      Camden               7   12223222
      Canberra             6   03222212
      Hobart               7   12223222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     8   11124312
      Casey               31   56543233
      Mawson              21   33344344
      Davis               18   34443332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3132 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan     6    Quiet
15 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over 
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected on 13-Jan, 
with quiet conditions for 14-15 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jan   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      106
Jan      89
Feb      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jan   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours, with some enhanced periods. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next 
3 days, with occasional disturbed ionospheric support in Antarctic 
regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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