[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 15 issued 2353 UT on 07 Jan 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 8 10:53:40 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C4.3 at 1151UT from region 2253 (S06W43).
IPS Culgoora solar observatory reports Region 2253 continued
to decline in overall size during the last 24 hours while region
2257 (N06W00) exhibited strong growth. Solar wind speed ranged
between 400km/s to 450km/s from 00UT-05UT. From ~0530UT a notable
increase in the total IMF (Bt) occurred reaching a maximum of
22nT at ~09UT of which the Bz component was -21nT. This sudden
change in the solar wind parameters had the signature of a CME
that is thought to have originated on 03Jan. Bz was southward
between 06UT-12UT during which Bt gradually declined to ~15nT.
Solar wind speed has ranged between 400km/s to 500km/s while
Bz is fluctuating between +/-6nT in the hours leading up to this
report. Solar activity is expected to be at Low levels for the
next three days with the chance of M-class flares and slight
chance of an X-Class event. Region 2241 (S8) which previously
produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 8 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 20 22553124
Cocos Island 13 22443123
Darwin 25 32553235
Townsville 25 32553235
Learmonth 16 324-----
Alice Springs 18 22553123
Norfolk Island 21 22553134
Culgoora 5 21------
Gingin 28 32663223
Camden 28 22663124
Canberra 18 22553123
Hobart 34 22673213
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 29 21466323
Casey 38 54743234
Mawson 37 33666223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 42
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 2234 2331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Jan 13 Unsettled to Active
10 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed for 07Jan due
to both coronal hole effects and CME effects. Unsettled to Active
conditions expected for the next 2 days with possible Minor Storm
periods due to continued coronal hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions for 10Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for low to mid latitudes.
Notable disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for all regions with
periods of enhanced and depressed MUF's. Poor ionospheric support
for Antarctic stations. Similar variable conditions are expected
for mid to low latitudes for the next 3 days with possible MUF
depressions of ~20% for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Continued disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes due
to elevated geomagnetic activity which is expected to subside
by 10Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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