[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 15 issued 2348 UT on 06 Jan 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 7 10:48:59 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with several
C-class flares from region 2253 (S07W28), the largest being a
C6.0 at 0531UT. The largest flare event over the UT day was a
C9.7 at 1148UT from a region on the south-east limb. Region 2253
continued to decline in overall spot size during the last 24
hours. Solar wind speed remained elevated between 450km/s and
500km/s over the UT day due to the effects of the south-pole
located coronal hole. The Bz component of the IMF underwent numerous
southward excursions between 03UT-10UT, reaching a maximum during
this time of -10nT. Solar activity is expected to be at Low levels
for the next three days with the chance of M-class flares and
slight chance of an X-Class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 22332332
Cocos Island 8 12232231
Darwin 11 22232333
Townsville 11 22232342
Learmonth 10 22232332
Alice Springs 11 22332332
Norfolk Island 9 2223223-
Culgoora 11 22332332
Gingin 12 22332432
Camden 12 23332332
Canberra 10 12332332
Hobart 15 23442332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 16 23352421
Casey 35 45654433
Mawson 36 35553642
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 4221 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 11 Unsettled
08 Jan 12 Unsettled
09 Jan 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods
for high latitudes observed for 06Jan due to coronal hole effects.
Predominantly Unsettled conditions expected for the next 3 days
with occasional Quiet or Active periods. Possible >10MeV proton
threshold crossing event in the next 24-48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions for low latitudes with depressed
periods and enhancements throughout the UT day. Notable depressed
MUF's extending to disturbed ionospheric support for mid to high
latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for Equatorial regions
with enhanced and depressed MUF's observed for IPS Cocos Is.
and Niue stations respectively during local day. MUF's mostly
near predicted monthly values for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions with depressed MUF's during local night. Poor ionospheric
support for Antarctic stations. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days with possible MUF depressions of ~20% for
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 247000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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