[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 15 issued 2339 UT on 08 Jan 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 9 10:39:08 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C4.2 at 0434UT originating from region
2253 (S06W59). Region 2253 continued to decline in overall size
during the last 24 hours while region 2257 (N06W13) continues
to show signs of growth. All other regions currently on the visible
disk remained stable. Solar wind speed ranged between 450km/s
and 500km/s for the majority of the UT day while Bz ranged between
+/-6nT with no prolonged southward excursions. Solar activity
is expected to be at Low levels for the next three days with
the chance of M-class flares and slight chance of an X-class
event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 44322222
Cocos Island 7 33222111
Darwin 14 44322223
Townsville 14 44323222
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 11 34322212
Norfolk Island 11 34322222
Culgoora 16 54323222
Gingin 10 33322222
Camden 14 44323222
Canberra 12 44322212
Hobart 16 44333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 18 34344412
Casey 40 57543333
Mawson 30 45434326
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 33 2167 4324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 12 Unsettled
10 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed for 08Jan. Elevated
geomagnetic conditions observed in the early part of the UT day
and subsequently subsided to Quiet conditions at the time of
this report. Unsettled conditions expected over the next 24 hours
with the chance of Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 10Jan-11Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to Enhanced MUF's observed for low to mid latitudes.
Some periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with high
latitude ionospheric support returning to normal from 10Jan onwards.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for Equatorial regions
during local day along with depressed MUF's for Northern AUS
regions. MUF's were near predicted monthly values for Southern
AUS/NZ regions with occasional depressed periods and disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic stations. Ionospheric recovery
after recent geomagnetic activity is expected over the next 24-48
hours with near predicted monthly values for mid to high latitudes
and periods of enhanced MUF's for low latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 10.9 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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