[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 27 10:30:36 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Feb             28 Feb             01 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed 
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased 
from 440 to nearly 350 km/s today as the coronal hole effect 
weakened. The Bz component of IMF varied approximately between 
+/-4 nT during most parts of the day today. Another coronal hole 
effect may keep the solar wind stream strengthened from 28 February. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the 
next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21221011
      Cocos Island         1   11110010
      Townsville           4   21122012
      Learmonth            3   21111012
      Alice Springs        2   11121001
      Norfolk Island       4   31211002
      Culgoora             3   11221011
      Gingin               4   21111022
      Camden               5   31221011
      Canberra             3   11221011
      Melbourne            6   2122----
      Launceston           4   22221011
      Hobart               3   11221011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     4   11223000
      Casey               10   43322012
      Mawson              11   22232134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb : 
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1132 3211


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Feb     4    Quiet
28 Feb    20    Quiet to Active, some minor storm periods possible.
01 Mar    25    Unsettled to Active, minor storm possible.

COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed 
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 27 February. 
Due to an expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from 
a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may rise to Active levels 
with possibility of some minor storm periods on 28 February. 
The same effect may keep geomagnetic activity enhanced to unsettled 
to minor storm levels on 1 March too.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Mar      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded at low latitude 
locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal 
in most other regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
on 27 February. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are expected 
on 28 February and 1 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Feb   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
01 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded in Northern Aus/NZ 
locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal 
in most other regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
on 27 February. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are expected 
on 28 February and 1 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.8E+08
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: NA

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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