[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 28 10:30:56 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed varied between 330 and
360 km/s today. The Bz component of IMF varied approximately
between +5/-4 nT during most parts of the day today. A coronal
hole effect may keep the solar wind stream strengthened from
28 February. There are three sunspots on the solar disk visible
from the earth. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels
for the next three days with the possibility of C-class activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 10111202
Cocos Island 1 00010101
Darwin 0 00------
Townsville 2 10111201
Learmonth 3 11111202
Alice Springs 2 10101202
Norfolk Island 1 00100111
Culgoora 3 10111202
Gingin 2 10101202
Camden 0 0-------
Canberra 2 10001202
Melbourne 5 31112201
Launceston 5 11112302
Hobart 3 1-------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 9 23421212
Mawson 14 21112036
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1021 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 20 Quiet to minor storm
01 Mar 25 Unsettled to minor storm
02 Mar 20 Unsettled to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 27 February
and is current for 28 Feb to 1 Mar. Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity were observed today. Due to an expected effect of a
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic
activity may rise to active levels with possibility of some minor
storm periods on 28 February. Activity may stay at unsettled
to minor storm levels on 1 and 2 March due the the same effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded on high latitude
locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal
in most other regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may
be observed, especially in the mid and high latitude regions,
from 28 February to 2 March due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels through this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
01 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded in Southern Aus/NZ
locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal
in most other regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may
be observed, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, from
28 February to 2 March due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels through this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list