[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 28 10:30:56 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Feb             01 Mar             02 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed 
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed varied between 330 and 
360 km/s today. The Bz component of IMF varied approximately 
between +5/-4 nT during most parts of the day today. A coronal 
hole effect may keep the solar wind stream strengthened from 
28 February. There are three sunspots on the solar disk visible 
from the earth. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels 
for the next three days with the possibility of C-class activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   10111202
      Cocos Island         1   00010101
      Darwin               0   00------
      Townsville           2   10111201
      Learmonth            3   11111202
      Alice Springs        2   10101202
      Norfolk Island       1   00100111
      Culgoora             3   10111202
      Gingin               2   10101202
      Camden               0   0-------
      Canberra             2   10001202
      Melbourne            5   31112201
      Launceston           5   11112302
      Hobart               3   1-------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001100
      Casey                9   23421212
      Mawson              14   21112036

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb : 
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   1021 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Feb    20    Quiet to minor storm
01 Mar    25    Unsettled to minor storm
02 Mar    20    Unsettled to minor storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 27 February 
and is current for 28 Feb to 1 Mar. Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic 
activity were observed today. Due to an expected effect of a 
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic 
activity may rise to active levels with possibility of some minor 
storm periods on 28 February. Activity may stay at unsettled 
to minor storm levels on 1 and 2 March due the the same effect.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
01 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
02 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded on high latitude 
locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal 
in most other regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may 
be observed, especially in the mid and high latitude regions, 
from 28 February to 2 March due to expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels through this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Feb    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Feb    95    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
01 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
02 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded in Southern Aus/NZ 
locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal 
in most other regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may 
be observed, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, from 
28 February to 2 March due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels through this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list