[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 26 10:30:50 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 117/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   117/75            117/75            117/75

COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed 
over the last 24 hours. Due to the effect of a coronal hole, 
the solar wind stream still remains strengthened. Solar wind 
speed mostly varied between 440 to nearly 500 km/s today. The 
Bz component of IMF varied approximately between +/-5 nT during 
most parts of the day today. This coronal hole effect is expected 
to keep the solar wind stream strengthened for one more day. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the 
next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11323221
      Cocos Island         4   10322110
      Townsville           7   11323221
      Learmonth            8   21323221
      Alice Springs        7   20323221
      Norfolk Island       6   11322121
      Culgoora             6   11322221
      Gingin               8   20323321
      Camden               8   11333221
      Canberra             7   10332221
      Launceston           9   21333221
      Hobart               8   12332221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    10   10344220
      Casey               15   34433222
      Mawson              13   33333331

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb : 
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg       10
           Planetary            12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       10
           Planetary            8   5554 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb     7    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Feb     4    Quiet
28 Feb     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity 
were observed today. Geomagnetic activity may be expected to 
stay at quiet to unsettled levels on 26 February and then gradually 
decline to quiet levels on 27 February and stay mostly quiet 
levels on 28February as the coronal hole effect is expected to 
gradually weaken further through 26 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were recorded at some locations 
over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal in most 
other regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected over 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Feb    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were recorded at some Aus/NZ locations 
over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal in most 
other regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected over 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:   137000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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