[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 26 10:30:50 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 117/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 117/75 117/75 117/75
COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed
over the last 24 hours. Due to the effect of a coronal hole,
the solar wind stream still remains strengthened. Solar wind
speed mostly varied between 440 to nearly 500 km/s today. The
Bz component of IMF varied approximately between +/-5 nT during
most parts of the day today. This coronal hole effect is expected
to keep the solar wind stream strengthened for one more day.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 11323221
Cocos Island 4 10322110
Townsville 7 11323221
Learmonth 8 21323221
Alice Springs 7 20323221
Norfolk Island 6 11322121
Culgoora 6 11322221
Gingin 8 20323321
Camden 8 11333221
Canberra 7 10332221
Launceston 9 21333221
Hobart 8 12332221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 10344220
Casey 15 34433222
Mawson 13 33333331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 5554 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Feb 4 Quiet
28 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
were observed today. Geomagnetic activity may be expected to
stay at quiet to unsettled levels on 26 February and then gradually
decline to quiet levels on 27 February and stay mostly quiet
levels on 28February as the coronal hole effect is expected to
gradually weaken further through 26 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were recorded at some locations
over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal in most
other regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected over
the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were recorded at some Aus/NZ locations
over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal in most
other regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected over
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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