[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 25 10:30:44 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over 
the last 24 hours, the biggest event of this period being a C1.4 
event that peaked at 1057 UT. Due to the effect of a coronal 
hole, the solar wind speed showed a a further increase from 440 
to nearly 550 km/s today. The Bz component of IMF varied approximately 
between +/-13 nT during this period. This coronal hole effect 
is expected to keep the solar wind stream strengthened for the 
next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels 
for the next three days with the possibility of some C-class 
activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   34333223
      Cocos Island         9   33232212
      Darwin              14   34333223
      Townsville          14   34333223
      Learmonth           13   44332212
      Alice Springs       14   34333213
      Norfolk Island      11   33333212
      Culgoora            13   24333223
      Gingin              14   44332213
      Camden              13   24333223
      Canberra            11   23333222
      Melbourne           14   34333223
      Launceston          14   34333223
      Hobart              13   34333222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    26   44555212
      Casey               21   54443213
      Mawson              50   67533326

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : 
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Darwin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15   3233 3423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb    10    Quiet to Active
26 Feb     7    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Feb     4    Mostly Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active levels of geomagnetic activity 
were observed today. Geomagnetic activity may be expected to 
stay at quiet to active levels on 25 February and then gradually 
decline to unsettled levels on 26 February and to mostly quiet 
levels on 27 February as the coronal hole effect is expected 
to weaken through these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: As anticipated minor MUF depressions were recorded at 
some mid and high latitude locations over the last 24 hours with 
HF conditions mostly normal in the low latitude regions. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected on 25 February, with the 
conditions gradually returning to more normal levels over the 
following two days thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Feb    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
26 Feb    85    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
27 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: As anticipated minor MUF depressions were recorded at 
some Southern Aus/NZ locations over the last 24 hours with HF 
conditions mostly normal in the Northern Aus/NZ regions. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected on 25 February, with the 
conditions gradually returning to more normal levels over the 
following two days thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:   15.6 p/cc  Temp:    76000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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