[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 24 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Feb             25 Feb             26 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over 
the last 24 hours, the biggest event of this period being a C1.1 
event that peaked at 0026 UT. As anticipated, the solar wind 
speed showed a gradual increase from 340 to 440 km/s over the 
UT day today due to the effect of coronal hole. The Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-10 nT during this period. This coronal 
hole effect is expected to keep the solar wind stream strengthened 
for the next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to stay at low 
levels for the next three days with the possibility of some C-class 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   23333323
      Cocos Island        10   23222332
      Darwin              14   23333324
      Townsville          13   23333323
      Learmonth           13   23323423
      Alice Springs       13   23333323
      Norfolk Island      17   25433322
      Culgoora            13   23333323
      Gingin              13   23323333
      Camden              13   23333323
      Canberra            13   23333323
      Melbourne           14   23333333
      Launceston          21   24434434
      Hobart              15   23433333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     5   21------
      Casey               25   36543222
      Mawson              34   44544455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb : 
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb     6    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Feb     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity 
were observed today with isolate active periods recorded at some 
high latitude locations. Geomagnetic activity may be expected 
to stay at quiet to unsettled levels on 24 and 25 February and 
at mostly quiet levels on 26 February. In the IPS magnetometer 
data for 23 Feb, a weak (13nT) impulse was observed at 1745UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded at some low and 
mid latitude locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions 
mostly normal in most locations. Mostly normal HF conditions 
may be expected for the next 3 days with the possibility of minor 
MUF depressions on high latitudes on 24 and 25 February and minor 
MUF enhancements on 26 February on low and mid latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Feb   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Feb   110    Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb   110    Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded at some low and 
mid latitude locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions 
mostly normal in most locations. Mostly normal HF conditions 
may be expected for the next 3 days with the possibility of minor 
MUF depressions in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 24 and 25 February 
and minor MUF enhancements on 26 February in the Northern regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 314 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    45900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list