[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 15 issued 2346 UT on 22 Feb 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 23 10:46:33 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*    ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Feb             24 Feb             25 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             130/84

COMMENT: There are 5 active regions presently visible on the 
solar disk although they are small and magnetically simple. Very 
low level flare activity was observed during 22 February. Very 
low to low level flare activity is expected for 23 February. 
CME activity observed during 22 February is not expected to be 
geoeffective. Elevated proton flux levels have remained below 
the S1 event threshold during 22 February. Solar wind speeds 
have remained low during 22 February and the IMF Bz component 
has fluctuated around neutral ranging between approximately +5 
and -5nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to increase slightly 
during 23 February due to a weak coronal hole wind stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111112
      Cocos Island         2   1101120-
      Darwin               5   22112212
      Townsville           5   22112212
      Learmonth            5   22111212
      Alice Springs        4   2210220-
      Norfolk Island       3   21011102
      Culgoora             4   21111112
      Gingin               4   2101122-
      Camden               4   21111112
      Canberra             3   2111111-
      Melbourne            4   21111112
      Launceston           6   22112113
      Hobart               4   22111112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     4   1202211-
      Casey               13   3443111-
      Mawson              15   4442221-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb : 
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   3311 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Feb    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of 
                isolated active periods
24 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet 
to unsettled for the next few days with the chance of isolated 
active periods for 23 February under the influence of an anticipated 
weak coronal hole wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions 
possible at times particularly for high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Feb   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Feb   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values to enhanced for 23 February with isolated slight depressions 
possible at times particularly for far southern regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 341 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    51400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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