[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 22 10:30:52 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: There are 5 active regions presently visible on the 
solar disk although they are small and magnetically simple. Only 
minor low level flare activity was observed during 21 February. 
Low level flare activity is expected for 22 February with the 
very small chance of moderate activity. A relatively impressive 
partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery around 0920UT 
(and C3 around 10UT) on February 21 although there does not appear 
to be any front side associated solar event. The CME therefore 
appears to have originated from the back-side, most likely around 
the south-west limb and is not expected to be geoeffective. This 
activity also appears to be associated with the small increase 
in energetic solar proton flux, although flux levels have not 
yet crossed the S1 event threshold. Solar wind speeds have remained 
low during 21 February and the IMF Bz component has fluctuated 
around neutral ranging between approximately +5 and -5nT. Solar 
wind conditions are expected to increase slightly during 22-23 
February due to a coronal hole wind stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112112
      Cocos Island         2   111100--
      Darwin               4   21111212
      Townsville           4   21112102
      Learmonth            4   22111112
      Alice Springs        2   1111110-
      Norfolk Island       3   10012112
      Culgoora             4   21112112
      Gingin               3   211110--
      Camden               4   21112112
      Canberra             3   2111210-
      Melbourne            4   21112112
      Launceston           4   21112112
      Hobart               4   11112112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   120121--
      Casey               12   2443220-
      Mawson              11   4422220-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb : 
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0221 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb    12    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of isolated 
                active levels at high latitudes
23 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet 
to unsettled for the next few days with the chance of isolated 
active periods for 22 February under the influence of an anticipated 
weak coronal hole wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions 
possible at times particularly for high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Feb    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values over the next few days with isolated slight depressions 
possible at times particularly for southern Australian regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    31600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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