[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 20 Feb 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 21 10:30:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: *YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: There are 4 numbered active regions presently visible
on the solar disk although they are small and magnetically simple.
Only minor low level flare activity was observed during 20 February.
Low level flare activity is expected for 21 February with the
very small chance of moderate activity. A CME was observed around
10UT in LASCO imagery and appears to have originated from the
far south-west and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar
wind speeds have remained low during 20 February and the IMF
Bz component has fluctuated around neutral ranging between +5
and -5nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain similar
for 21 February and then increase slightly during 22 February
due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11212001
Cocos Island 2 11112000
Darwin 5 11222112
Townsville 4 21212111
Learmonth 4 12212002
Alice Springs 3 11212001
Norfolk Island 2 01211011
Culgoora 3 11212001
Gingin 3 11212011
Camden 3 11212001
Canberra 3 11212001
Melbourne 3 12212001
Launceston 5 12222012
Hobart 3 12212001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 02213001
Casey 19 45532012
Mawson 13 24323114
Davis 3 1-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2231 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 6 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Feb 14 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated active
levels and possible minor storm periods at high
latitudes
23 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
for 21 February and then increase slightly on 22 February under
the influence of an anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next few days with some mildly degraded conditions possible
at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb 90 Mostly near predicted monthly values with possible
isolated mild depressions for southern Australian
regions during the local day
22 Feb 90 Mostly near predicted monthly values with possible
15% depressions
23 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values over the next few days with isolated mild depressions
possible at times particularly for southern Australian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 65800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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