[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 20 Feb 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 21 10:30:25 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: *YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: There are 4 numbered active regions presently visible 
on the solar disk although they are small and magnetically simple. 
Only minor low level flare activity was observed during 20 February. 
Low level flare activity is expected for 21 February with the 
very small chance of moderate activity. A CME was observed around 
10UT in LASCO imagery and appears to have originated from the 
far south-west and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar 
wind speeds have remained low during 20 February and the IMF 
Bz component has fluctuated around neutral ranging between +5 
and -5nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain similar 
for 21 February and then increase slightly during 22 February 
due to a coronal hole wind stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11212001
      Cocos Island         2   11112000
      Darwin               5   11222112
      Townsville           4   21212111
      Learmonth            4   12212002
      Alice Springs        3   11212001
      Norfolk Island       2   01211011
      Culgoora             3   11212001
      Gingin               3   11212011
      Camden               3   11212001
      Canberra             3   11212001
      Melbourne            3   12212001
      Launceston           5   12222012
      Hobart               3   12212001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     4   02213001
      Casey               19   45532012
      Mawson              13   24323114
      Davis                3   1-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb : 
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2231 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb     6    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Feb    14    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated active 
                levels and possible minor storm periods at high 
                latitudes
23 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet 
for 21 February and then increase slightly on 22 February under 
the influence of an anticipated coronal hole wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next few days with some mildly degraded conditions possible 
at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Feb    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb    90    Mostly near predicted monthly values with possible 
                isolated mild depressions for southern Australian 
                regions during the local day
22 Feb    90    Mostly near predicted monthly values with possible 
                15% depressions
23 Feb    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values over the next few days with isolated mild depressions 
possible at times particularly for southern Australian regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    65800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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