[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 15 issued 2337 UT on 19 Feb 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 20 10:37:37 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: There are presently 5 numbered active regions on the 
visible disk, although they are relatively small and magnetically 
simple. There has been isolated minor low level flare activity 
during 19 February. Further C-class activity is possible for 
20 February with the very small chance of isolated M-class flares. 
No Earth directed CMEs were apparent in SOHO satellite imagery. 
Solar wind speeds have declined slowly during 20 February and 
are presently around 350 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to remain low for 20 February and then increase again slightly 
for 21-21 February. The N-S component of the IMF has been fluctuating 
around neutral values.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22211222
      Cocos Island         4   21111221
      Darwin               6   22211222
      Townsville           6   22221212
      Learmonth            7   22221322
      Alice Springs        6   22211222
      Norfolk Island       4   11211112
      Culgoora             5   22211212
      Gingin               5   21111222
      Camden               5   22211212
      Canberra             4   12211211
      Melbourne            6   22211222
      Launceston           9   23311322
      Hobart               6   22211222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     6   22312211
      Casey               21   35542223
      Mawson              23   44423254
      Davis               17   34443223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb : 
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16   5433 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb     6    Quiet
21 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled with the chance of active 
                levels at high latitudes
22 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly quiet during 19 
February for the Australian region with some elevated activity 
at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
quiet to unsettled over the next few days with the chance of 
isolated active periods at high latitudes for 21 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions 
possible at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Feb    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb    85    Near predicted monthly values with isolated depressions 
                at times
21 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values over the next few days with isolated mild depressions 
possible at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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