[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 18 Feb 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 19 10:30:01 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: There has been an increase in the number of active regions
on the visible solar disk with presently 6 numbered active regions,
although they are relatively small and magnetically simple. There
has been some minor low level flare activity from regions 2282,
2287 and 2289. Further C-class activity is expected for 19 February
with the small chance of isolated M-class flares. Solar wind
speeds have remained mildly elevated during 18 February ranging
between 400-500 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected decline
slowly during 19 February as the effects of a coronal hole wind
stream subside. The N-S component of the IMF is slowly returning
towards neutral values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 33223222
Cocos Island 9 322-----
Darwin 10 32223322
Townsville 10 33223222
Learmonth 12 33323322
Alice Springs 8 3222320-
Norfolk Island 9 33222222
Culgoora 10 33223222
Gingin 16 432-----
Camden 19 55323222
Canberra 8 32223211
Melbourne 12 33333222
Launceston 15 43334222
Hobart 13 43333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
Macquarie Island 23 443-----
Casey 20 4543322-
Mawson 26 5553232-
Davis 21 43------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 3333 3345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled with active periods possible
21 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly unsettled to quiet
during 18 February with some isolated active levels for the Australian
region and storm periods at high latitudes early in the UT day.
This activity is the result of impacts from a coronal hole wind
stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to
unsettled with the small chance of isolated active periods at
high latitudes for 19 February. Geomagnetic activity may increase
again slightly for 20-21 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions
possible during 19 February particularly for mid-high latitude
regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values with some slight
depressions at times for southern regions
20 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some mild depressions were observed for southern regions
during 18 February otherwise conditions were mostly normal. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values with
slight depressions at times particularly for southern Australian
regions for 19 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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