[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 18 Feb 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 19 10:30:01 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: There has been an increase in the number of active regions 
on the visible solar disk with presently 6 numbered active regions, 
although they are relatively small and magnetically simple. There 
has been some minor low level flare activity from regions 2282, 
2287 and 2289. Further C-class activity is expected for 19 February 
with the small chance of isolated M-class flares. Solar wind 
speeds have remained mildly elevated during 18 February ranging 
between 400-500 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected decline 
slowly during 19 February as the effects of a coronal hole wind 
stream subside. The N-S component of the IMF is slowly returning 
towards neutral values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33223222
      Cocos Island         9   322-----
      Darwin              10   32223322
      Townsville          10   33223222
      Learmonth           12   33323322
      Alice Springs        8   3222320-
      Norfolk Island       9   33222222
      Culgoora            10   33223222
      Gingin              16   432-----
      Camden              19   55323222
      Canberra             8   32223211
      Melbourne           12   33333222
      Launceston          15   43334222
      Hobart              13   43333222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    23   443-----
      Casey               20   4543322-
      Mawson              26   5553232-
      Davis               21   43------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb : 
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             19   3333 3345     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled with active periods possible
21 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly unsettled to quiet 
during 18 February with some isolated active levels for the Australian 
region and storm periods at high latitudes early in the UT day. 
This activity is the result of impacts from a coronal hole wind 
stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to 
unsettled with the small chance of isolated active periods at 
high latitudes for 19 February. Geomagnetic activity may increase 
again slightly for 20-21 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions 
possible during 19 February particularly for mid-high latitude 
regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Feb    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values with some slight 
                depressions at times for southern regions
20 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some mild depressions were observed for southern regions 
during 18 February otherwise conditions were mostly normal. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values with 
slight depressions at times particularly for southern Australian 
regions for 19 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list