[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 15 issued 2331 UT on 17 Feb 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 18 10:31:06 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to continue at mostly very
low to low levels over the next few days with the small chance
of low level moderate activity due to the possible return of
a previously M-flare producing regions. Solar wind speeds have
been slightly elevated during 17 February and are presently around
400 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain slightly elevated
for 18 February due to a coronal hole wind stream. The N-S component
of the IMF has been mildly southward for periods during 17 February
and is presently around -10nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 33332323
Cocos Island 9 3322222-
Darwin 12 33232323
Townsville 13 33232333
Learmonth 13 33232333
Alice Springs 9 2323231-
Norfolk Island 10 22232233
Culgoora 13 32332333
Gingin 12 3333231-
Camden 17 32332335
Canberra 8 22331222
Melbourne 14 33332333
Launceston 17 33442333
Hobart 16 32442333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Macquarie Island 17 2335233-
Casey 36 4565432-
Mawson 37 3454365-
Davis 30 34653343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0010 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active
periods early in the UT day and the small chance
of minor storm periods at high latitudes
19 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly unsettled during
17 February with some isolated active levels for the Australian
region and storm periods at high latitudes. This activity is
the result of impacts from a coronal hole wind stream. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with possible
active periods early in the UT day and the small chance of minor
storm periods at high latitudes for 18 February. Geomagnetic
activity should return to mostly unsettled to quiet levels for
19 and 20 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next few days with some degraded conditions possible
during 18 February particularly for mid-high latitude regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values with slightly degraded
conditions possible at times for southern regions
19 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values with slight depressions at times
particularly for southern Australian regions for 18 February.
These conditions may persist into 19 February with mostly normal
conditions expected for 20 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 66800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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