[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 15 issued 2331 UT on 17 Feb 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 18 10:31:06 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to continue at mostly very 
low to low levels over the next few days with the small chance 
of low level moderate activity due to the possible return of 
a previously M-flare producing regions. Solar wind speeds have 
been slightly elevated during 17 February and are presently around 
400 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain slightly elevated 
for 18 February due to a coronal hole wind stream. The N-S component 
of the IMF has been mildly southward for periods during 17 February 
and is presently around -10nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33332323
      Cocos Island         9   3322222-
      Darwin              12   33232323
      Townsville          13   33232333
      Learmonth           13   33232333
      Alice Springs        9   2323231-
      Norfolk Island      10   22232233
      Culgoora            13   32332333
      Gingin              12   3333231-
      Camden              17   32332335
      Canberra             8   22331222
      Melbourne           14   33332333
      Launceston          17   33442333
      Hobart              16   32442333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    17   2335233-
      Casey               36   4565432-
      Mawson              37   3454365-
      Davis               30   34653343

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0010 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active 
                periods early in the UT day and the small chance 
                of minor storm periods at high latitudes
19 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly unsettled during 
17 February with some isolated active levels for the Australian 
region and storm periods at high latitudes. This activity is 
the result of impacts from a coronal hole wind stream. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with possible 
active periods early in the UT day and the small chance of minor 
storm periods at high latitudes for 18 February. Geomagnetic 
activity should return to mostly unsettled to quiet levels for 
19 and 20 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next few days with some degraded conditions possible 
during 18 February particularly for mid-high latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Feb   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb    95    Near predicted monthly values with slightly degraded 
                conditions possible at times for southern regions
19 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values with slight depressions at times 
particularly for southern Australian regions for 18 February. 
These conditions may persist into 19 February with mostly normal 
conditions expected for 20 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    66800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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