[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 17 10:30:47 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Very low to low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to continue at mostly very
low to low levels over the next few days with the small chance
of low level moderate activity due to the possible return of
a previously M-flare producing region around 17 Feb. Solar wind
speeds are expected to be slightly elevated over the next couple
of days due to a coronal hole wind stream. The CIR associated
with this is resulting in an increase in the southward component
of the IMF, presently around -10nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 12112123
Cocos Island 5 1301212-
Darwin 8 22122233
Townsville 8 12122233
Learmonth 7 11122233
Alice Springs 4 1101222-
Norfolk Island 4 11012122
Culgoora 5 12022122
Gingin 6 1301222-
Camden 4 11112122
Canberra 2 00011122
Melbourne 5 11112123
Launceston 6 22112123
Hobart 4 11112122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 0110001-
Casey 11 3432112-
Mawson 7 2221223-
Davis 7 2-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1121 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active
periods early in the UT day and the small chance
of minor storm periods at high latitudes
18 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet
to unsettled with possible active periods early in the UT day
and the small chance of minor storm periods at high latitudes
for 17 February. This anticipated increase in activity is due
to a coronal hole wind stream. Geomagnetic activity should return
to mostly unsettled to quiet levels for 18 and 19 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next few days with some degraded conditions possible
during 17 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Possible occasional
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions over the
next few days, particularly during 17 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 51500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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