[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 17 10:30:47 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Feb             18 Feb             19 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to continue at mostly very 
low to low levels over the next few days with the small chance 
of low level moderate activity due to the possible return of 
a previously M-flare producing region around 17 Feb. Solar wind 
speeds are expected to be slightly elevated over the next couple 
of days due to a coronal hole wind stream. The CIR associated 
with this is resulting in an increase in the southward component 
of the IMF, presently around -10nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12112123
      Cocos Island         5   1301212-
      Darwin               8   22122233
      Townsville           8   12122233
      Learmonth            7   11122233
      Alice Springs        4   1101222-
      Norfolk Island       4   11012122
      Culgoora             5   12022122
      Gingin               6   1301222-
      Camden               4   11112122
      Canberra             2   00011122
      Melbourne            5   11112123
      Launceston           6   22112123
      Hobart               4   11112122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   0110001-
      Casey               11   3432112-
      Mawson               7   2221223-
      Davis                7   2-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              10   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1121 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Feb    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active 
                periods early in the UT day and the small chance 
                of minor storm periods at high latitudes
18 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet 
to unsettled with possible active periods early in the UT day 
and the small chance of minor storm periods at high latitudes 
for 17 February. This anticipated increase in activity is due 
to a coronal hole wind stream. Geomagnetic activity should return 
to mostly unsettled to quiet levels for 18 and 19 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next few days with some degraded conditions possible 
during 17 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Feb    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Possible occasional 
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions over the 
next few days, particularly during 17 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    51500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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