[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 16 10:30:57 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar flare activity remained Very Low during 15Feb. 
All numbered regions on the visible disk appear either stable 
or in decline. Conditions are likely to remain Very Low for the 
next 24 hours with the chance of C-class events and a slight 
chance of an isolated M-class event. No Earth-directed CMEs observed 
in available LASCO imagery. ACE solar wind conditions since around 
0600UT, indicate some influence of the coronal hole high speed 
stream, with an enhancement in speed (but still light ~350Km/s), 
Bt up to 10nT and Bz component fluctuating in the range +/-10nT. 
Further wind speeds and magnetic field strength is expected for 
the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23222111
      Cocos Island         4   12212110
      Darwin               7   23222112
      Townsville           6   23222111
      Learmonth            7   23222122
      Alice Springs        6   13222111
      Norfolk Island       4   12112112
      Culgoora             6   23222111
      Gingin               6   22222121
      Camden               6   13222111
      Canberra             3   12212100
      Melbourne            5   12222111
      Launceston           8   23223211
      Hobart               5   22222111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     6   22123210
      Casey               17   34533222
      Mawson              14   23333341
      Davis               11   33333221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb    16    Quiet to Active
17 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled during 
UT day 15 Feb. Expect Unsettled to isolated cases of Active levels 
to prevail over the next 24 hours due to faster solar wind.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Feb   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.    
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb   110    Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb   110    Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Possible occasional 
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions over the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    37500 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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