[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 15 issued 2331 UT on 14 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 15 10:31:12 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar flare activity remained Very Low during 14Feb. 
All numbered regions on the visible disk appear relatively stable. 
Conditions are likely to remain Very Low for the next 24 hours 
with the chance of C-class events and a slight chance of an isolated 
M-class event. The dark large filament located in the SW quadrant 
remained stable. No Earth-directed CMEs observed in available 
LASCO imagery. ACE solar wind observations show the solar wind 
speed remained ~ 350 km/s. The Bz component fluctuated between 
about +/-5nT for most of 14 Feb. Elevated solar wind speed from 
a coronal hole may take effect late today, 15 Feb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11010001
      Cocos Island         0   01010000
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           2   11110011
      Learmonth            3   11110003
      Alice Springs        0   10000000
      Norfolk Island       0   00000011
      Culgoora             1   11110001
      Gingin               0   11000000
      Camden               1   11110001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Melbourne            1   11010000
      Launceston           2   11112001
      Hobart               1   11000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey               13   35421101
      Mawson               6   24211100
      Davis               56   23321191

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb : 
      Darwin              18   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0001 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb    15    Quiet to Active
16 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during UT day 14 Feb. 
Conditions are likely to rise to Unsettled levels late today 
15 Feb with the possibility of an isolated Active period due 
to the arrival of faster solar wind.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Feb   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Possible occasional 
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions over the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    26800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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