[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 14 10:30:46 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             140/94

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low during 13 Feb with 
a single B9.6 flare from region 2282(N10E16). This region remain 
the most significant region on the visible disk. All numbered 
regions on the visible disk appear stable or in decline. Conditions 
are likely to remain Very Low for the next 24 hours with the 
chance of C-class evens and a slight chance of an isolated M-class 
event. No Earth-directed CMEs observed on 13Feb. ACE solar wind 
observations show the solar wind speed remained ~ 350 km/s. The 
Bz component fluctuated between about +/-4nT for most of 13 Feb. 
Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal hole may take effect 
late day two, 15 Feb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   00111101
      Cocos Island         0   00010000
      Darwin               1   01101101
      Townsville           2   01111111
      Learmonth            1   00011101
      Alice Springs        1   00101001
      Norfolk Island       1   00011001
      Culgoora             3   011112-1
      Gingin               1   00111000
      Camden               3   11112101
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Melbourne            2   00112101
      Launceston           3   11112101
      Hobart               1   01111001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   00020000
      Casey               11   34422111
      Mawson               5   22212211
      Davis                7   -3322111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb     7    Quiet
15 Feb    15    Quiet to Active
16 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during UT day 13 Feb. 
Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail until late 15 Feb when 
activity levels will likely increase due to the arrival of faster 
solar wind.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Feb   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
        Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Feb   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced 
for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    31600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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