[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 13 10:30:44 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 12 Feb. The largest 
flare of 12 Feb was a C6 event from region 2280(S06W81) at 0212U 
with an associated narrow CME first observed in LASCO-C2 imagery 
~~0236UT. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. No other 
Earth-directed CMEs observed on 12Feb. There are currently 3 
numbered regions on the visible disk of which region 2282(N11E31) 
is relatively stable and inactive while regions 2280 and 2281(N13W34) 
are in decline . Solar activity is expected to be at Low levels 
for the next 24 hours with the chance of an M-class flare. GONG 
H alpha images show the dark large filament located in the SW 
quadrant appears stable at the time of this report. The solar 
wind speed remains light and steady near 350 km/s over the UT 
day. The Bz component fluctuated between about +/-5nT for most 
of 12 Feb. The solar wind speed may start to increase late 15 
Feb due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112111
      Cocos Island         4   23111110
      Darwin               4   21112112
      Townsville           4   21112112
      Learmonth            4   21112111
      Alice Springs        3   21102111
      Norfolk Island       2   110-----
      Culgoora             4   21112111
      Gingin               4   21112111
      Camden               3   21111111
      Canberra             1   11001101
      Melbourne            4   21112211
      Launceston           6   22112222
      Hobart               5   22112212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   11003210
      Casey               14   35332122
      Mawson              15   42223343
      Davis               14   333242--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1300 3111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb     7    Quiet
14 Feb     7    Quiet
15 Feb    15    Quiet to Active.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during UT day 12 Feb. 
Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail until late 15 Feb when 
activity levels will likely increase due to the arrival of faster 
solar wind.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 24 hours. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Feb   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% 13-18UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Feb   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Feb   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values or mildly enhanced 
for the next few days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts 
over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    36600 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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