[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 12 10:30:42 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             122/75             126/79

COMMENT: Only a few minor C-class flares were observed over the 
UT day, 11 Feb most originating in AR2282(N11E31). This region 
has increased in area and magnetic complexity and maintains potential 
for further C- to M-class activity. Solar background X-ray flux 
has declined to B levels. GONG H alpha images show the large 
filament East AR2280(S08W64) remains stable. A small filament 
in the SE quadrant lifted off after 17UT. A CME has not been 
confirmed from available LASCO imagery, but given the location 
it is unlikely that this CME is earth directed. No other Earth-directed 
CMEs observed on 11 Feb. Solar wind speed was relatively steady 
at about 350 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component fluctuated 
+/-5nT with sustained periods of negative Bz ~02UT, and 10-12UT. 
Solar wind speeds may become slightly enhanced later today, 12 
Feb if CME (associated with M2.4 flare 9/2335UT) interacts with 
the Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet with one 
isolated Unsettled period.

Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   13112001
      Cocos Island         2   221-1000
      Darwin               6   23211112
      Townsville           4   23112001
      Learmonth            3   22111001
      Alice Springs        4   23111001
      Norfolk Island       2   12002011
      Culgoora             4   13112001
      Gingin               3   22112001
      Camden               4   13112001
      Canberra             1   02002000
      Melbourne            3   12112001
      Launceston           5   13122101
      Hobart               6   14112101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     5   12014100
      Casey               13   44432101
      Mawson              12   35223200
      Davis               13   34334210

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   0200 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during UT day 
11 Feb. Sustained negative IMF Bz component early UT day resulted 
in one isolated Unsettled period ~0300 UT. Geomagnetic conditions 
may rise to Unsettled levels late today 12 Feb with the possibility 
of an isolated Active period if 9 Feb CME interacts with the 
Earth.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 24 hours. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Feb   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Feb   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values or mildly enhanced 
for the next few days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts 
over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    43200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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