[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 11 10:30:32 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4 09/2339UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Feb             12 Feb             13 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the UT day, 10February. 
Several C-class and one long duration M2.4 flares were observed 
during this period from regions 2282(N14E51) and 2280(S08 W51). 
The M2.4 flare from region 2282 started at 9/2259UT, peaked at 
2335 UT and ended at 10/0014 UT with associated Type II (shock 
speed ~11000km/s) and a hallo CME first observed in LASCO-C2 
imagery at 9/2324UT. This CME may have an Earthward directed 
component. There are currently 3 numbered regions on the visible 
disk of which regions 2280 and 2282 continue to show signs of 
growth while region 2281 is in decline . Solar activity is expected 
to be at Low levels for the next three days with the chance of 
M-class flares specially from regions 2280 and 2282 which are 
currently the largest and the most active on the visible disk. 
GONG H alpha images show the large filament East AR2280 remains 
in place. Solar wind speeds remained around 400Km/s. The interplanetary 
magnetic field Bz component ranged from +/-5 nT. Expect the solar 
wind speed to remain around 400 km/s or slightly below over the 
UT day 11 Feb. Possibly becoming slightly enhanced from late 
on Feb 12 if CME (associated with M2.4 flare 9/2335UT) interacts 
with the Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12111122
      Cocos Island         2   11011111
      Darwin               4   12111212
      Townsville           5   12111213
      Learmonth            4   12111122
      Alice Springs        3   11111112
      Norfolk Island       4   21101122
      Culgoora             4   12111122
      Gingin               4   12101122
      Camden               4   12111122
      Canberra             2   01101112
      Launceston           6   12212222
      Hobart               4   02112122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   02002012
      Casey               14   34422223
      Mawson              17   24213245
      Davis               14   3432332-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb : 
      Darwin               7   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3000 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Feb     7    Mostly Quiet.
12 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been Quiet in the Australian 
region for the UT day, 10 Feb. Expect mostly Quiet levels to 
prevail over the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions may rise 
to Unsettled levels on 12-13 Feb with the possibility of isolated 
Active periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 24 hours. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Feb   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available .
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Feb   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Feb   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Feb   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to slightly enhanced for the next 24 hours. There is the chance 
of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    87100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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