[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 15 issued 2343 UT on 09 Feb 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 10 10:43:21 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: There were several C class flares during Feb 9 UT. An
M2 flare from region 2282 (N14 E55) started at 09/2219UT and
still in progress at the time of this report. Type II sweep observed
commencing at 2315U. The 3-day outlook is for Low to Moderate
solar activity. GONG H alpha images show a large filament East
AR2280. This feature is monitored in case it erupts. No significant
earthward directed CME has been observed by the time of this
report. ACE solar wind observations showed a gradual decline
from approximately 500 to 400 km/s over the last 24 hours. The
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged from +/-5 nT.
This indicates the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream
is abating. Expect the solar wind speed to remain around 400
km/s over the UT day, 10 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22103222
Cocos Island 2 21101101
Darwin 8 32213212
Townsville 6 22103222
Learmonth 6 21203212
Alice Springs 5 22103211
Norfolk Island 5 21103221
Culgoora 6 22113221
Gingin 6 22103221
Camden 7 22113222
Canberra 5 11103221
Launceston 10 32214222
Hobart 7 22213-22
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 21015311
Casey 23 46423223
Mawson 22 43413345
Davis 62 33923243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2232 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled in
the Australian region for the UT day, 09 February. Expect Quiet
to Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts
over the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day
09 Feb. Near monthly predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced values
are expected 10-12 Feb. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts
over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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