[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 15 issued 2343 UT on 09 Feb 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 10 10:43:21 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Feb             11 Feb             12 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: There were several C class flares during Feb 9 UT. An 
M2 flare from region 2282 (N14 E55) started at 09/2219UT and 
still in progress at the time of this report. Type II sweep observed 
commencing at 2315U. The 3-day outlook is for Low to Moderate 
solar activity. GONG H alpha images show a large filament East 
AR2280. This feature is monitored in case it erupts. No significant 
earthward directed CME has been observed by the time of this 
report. ACE solar wind observations showed a gradual decline 
from approximately 500 to 400 km/s over the last 24 hours. The 
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged from +/-5 nT. 
This indicates the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream 
is abating. Expect the solar wind speed to remain around 400 
km/s over the UT day, 10 Feb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22103222
      Cocos Island         2   21101101
      Darwin               8   32213212
      Townsville           6   22103222
      Learmonth            6   21203212
      Alice Springs        5   22103211
      Norfolk Island       5   21103221
      Culgoora             6   22113221
      Gingin               6   22103221
      Camden               7   22113222
      Canberra             5   11103221
      Launceston          10   32214222
      Hobart               7   22213-22    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    10   21015311
      Casey               23   46423223
      Mawson              22   43413345
      Davis               62   33923243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2232 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled in 
the Australian region for the UT day, 09 February. Expect Quiet 
to Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts 
over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Feb   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day 
09 Feb. Near monthly predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced values 
are expected 10-12 Feb. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts 
over the forecast period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 508 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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