[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 9 10:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 08 February. 
The Largest flare during this period was a C3.1 class flare at 
08/2104UT from active region 2277 (N09W70). Expect solar activity 
to be Low to Moderate for 09 February. ACE solar wind observations 
showed Earth's entry into a high speed solar wind stream increasing 
from 400 to 640 km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently 
500km/s. Expect a gradual decline in the solar wind speed over 
the UT day 09 February. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz 
component ranged from ~ +8/-9 nT. A weak CME was observed ejecting 
material mainly to the southeast with a smaller amount of material 
ejected to the southwest. First observed at 08/0848UT with LASCO 
C2 imagery. Not expected to be geoeffective at this time. Type 
II sweep observed commencing at 08/2237UT with estimated shock 
velocity of 600km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23222222
      Cocos Island         4   22211110
      Darwin               7   23221222
      Townsville           9   23222232
      Learmonth            9   23222223
      Alice Springs        8   23222222
      Norfolk Island       7   23211132
      Culgoora             9   -3222232
      Gingin               7   22222222
      Camden               9   13322232
      Canberra             6   13211122
      Launceston          11   24322232
      Hobart               9   24321122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    10   23421222
      Casey               21   36433222
      Mawson              27   34433364
      Davis               24   23543245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   1034 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled in 
the Australian region for the UT day, 08 February. Also Observed 
isolated case of Active levels at high latitudes. Expect Quiet 
to Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Feb   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to slightly enhanced for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    82400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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