[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 8 10:30:48 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 07 February. 
The Largest flare during this period was a C2.5 class flare at 
07/1938UT from active region 2277 (N09W57). Expect solar activity 
to be Low for 08 February. ACE solar wind observations ranged 
from 380 to 470 km/s over the last 24 hours. Expect the solar 
wind speed to remain in this range during the UT day, 07 February. 
The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged from +/-7 
nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21232222
      Cocos Island         8   22422220
      Darwin               9   22232223
      Townsville           8   21231223
      Learmonth            8   21232223
      Alice Springs        8   12332221
      Norfolk Island       7   -1231222
      Culgoora             8   1123-223
      Gingin               8   21332221
      Camden               9   11241223
      Canberra             6   11231212
      Launceston          10   22242223
      Hobart               9   12242222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    15   00453420
      Casey               16   35432221
      Mawson              16   23343342

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       11   (Quiet)
      Gingin              12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1111 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled in 
the Australian region for the UT day, 07 February. Expect Quiet 
to Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Feb   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to slightly enhanced for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    78600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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