[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 7 10:30:32 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 143/97


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 06 February. 
The Largest flare during this period was a C1.4 class flare at 
06/1017UT from active region 2280 (S08E02). Expect solar activity 
to be Low for 07 February. ACE solar wind observations ranged 
from 400 to 450 km/s over the last 24 hours. Expect the solar 
wind speed to remain in this range during the UT day, 07 February. 
The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged from +/-6 
nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11221111
      Cocos Island         3   12111110
      Darwin               4   21211111
      Townsville           4   11222110
      Learmonth            4   22211110
      Alice Springs        3   12211110
      Norfolk Island       4   11221012
      Culgoora             4   112-1121
      Gingin               4   21221110
      Camden               5   11321121
      Canberra             4   11221121
      Launceston           6   12322220
      Hobart               5   12321-10    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   12211010
      Casey               22   45543211
      Mawson              11   23433210

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   1313 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb     6    Quiet
08 Feb     6    Quiet
09 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Mostly Quiet in the Australian 
region for the UT day, 06 February. Expect Quiet to Unsettled 
levels to prevail over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Feb   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb   135    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb   135    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb   135    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to slightly enhanced for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    55400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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