[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 7 10:30:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 06 February.
The Largest flare during this period was a C1.4 class flare at
06/1017UT from active region 2280 (S08E02). Expect solar activity
to be Low for 07 February. ACE solar wind observations ranged
from 400 to 450 km/s over the last 24 hours. Expect the solar
wind speed to remain in this range during the UT day, 07 February.
The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged from +/-6
nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Cocos Island 3 12111110
Darwin 4 21211111
Townsville 4 11222110
Learmonth 4 22211110
Alice Springs 3 12211110
Norfolk Island 4 11221012
Culgoora 4 112-1121
Gingin 4 21221110
Camden 5 11321121
Canberra 4 11221121
Launceston 6 12322220
Hobart 5 12321-10
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 12211010
Casey 22 45543211
Mawson 11 23433210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 1313 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 6 Quiet
08 Feb 6 Quiet
09 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Mostly Quiet in the Australian
region for the UT day, 06 February. Expect Quiet to Unsettled
levels to prevail over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to slightly enhanced for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 55400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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