[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 6 10:30:45 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 05 February. 
The Largest flare during this period was a C3.3/1F class flare 
at 05/0953UT from active region (AR) 2277 (N08W31). Expect solar 
activity to be Low to Moderate for 06 February. ACE solar wind 
observations showed a gradual decline from approximately 440 
to 400 km/s over the last 24 hours. Expect the solar wind speed 
to remain just above 400 km/s over the UT day, 06 February. The 
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged from +2/-5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   12224331
      Cocos Island         9   02223332
      Darwin               9   12223331
      Townsville          11   22224331
      Learmonth           14   22224442
      Alice Springs       11   22224331
      Norfolk Island       8   12213322
      Culgoora            10   12224331
      Gingin              11   12224332
      Camden              10   12224331
      Canberra             9   12223331
      Launceston          13   12324431
      Hobart               9   12224321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    16   12135521
      Casey               16   24443321
      Mawson              22   35333434
      Davis               16   24334323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2112 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Feb     6    Quiet
08 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Active in the 
Australian region for the UT day, 05 February. Note isolated 
cases of Active to Minor Storm levels observed at higher latitudes. 
Expect Quiet to Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Feb   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during loc0al night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to slightly enhanced for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 472 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    71000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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