[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 6 10:30:45 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 05 February.
The Largest flare during this period was a C3.3/1F class flare
at 05/0953UT from active region (AR) 2277 (N08W31). Expect solar
activity to be Low to Moderate for 06 February. ACE solar wind
observations showed a gradual decline from approximately 440
to 400 km/s over the last 24 hours. Expect the solar wind speed
to remain just above 400 km/s over the UT day, 06 February. The
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged from +2/-5 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 12224331
Cocos Island 9 02223332
Darwin 9 12223331
Townsville 11 22224331
Learmonth 14 22224442
Alice Springs 11 22224331
Norfolk Island 8 12213322
Culgoora 10 12224331
Gingin 11 12224332
Camden 10 12224331
Canberra 9 12223331
Launceston 13 12324431
Hobart 9 12224321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 16 12135521
Casey 16 24443321
Mawson 22 35333434
Davis 16 24334323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2112 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Feb 6 Quiet
08 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Active in the
Australian region for the UT day, 05 February. Note isolated
cases of Active to Minor Storm levels observed at higher latitudes.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during loc0al night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to slightly enhanced for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 71000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list