[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 5 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max         Fadeout   Freq.   Sectors
M1/2N    0215UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 145/99


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the UT day, 04 February. 
The Largest flare during this period was a M1.2/2N class flare 
at 04/0215UT from active region (AR) 2277 (N07W15). Note AR 2277 
appears to be two separate regions. Expect solar activity to 
be Moderate due to expected M and C-class flares from AR 2277. 
Also expect subflares and C-class flares from ARs 2280 (S07E32) 
and 2281 (N17E64). ACE solar wind observations showed a gradual 
decline from approximately 580 to 420 km/s over the last 24 hours. 
Expect the solar wind speed to remain just above 400 km/s over 
the UT day, 05 February. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz 
component ranged from +4/-5 nT and was predominantly negative.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21113212
      Cocos Island         5   12113211
      Darwin               6   21123212
      Townsville           7   22123212
      Learmonth            6   22113212
      Alice Springs        6   21113212
      Norfolk Island       4   21112111
      Culgoora             6   21113212
      Gingin               6   11113312
      Camden               7   21223212
      Canberra             6   21213212
      Launceston           9   22224212
      Hobart               7   22223202    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     9   11115202
      Casey               18   34533322
      Mawson              26   43333455
      Davis               19   33433532

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   3422 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb     6    Quiet
07 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled in 
the Australian region for the UT day, 04 February. Note periods 
of Active levels observed at higher latitudes. Expect Quiet to 
Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Feb   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb   126    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb   126    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb   126    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to slightly enhanced for the next few days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 572 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   134000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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