[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 5 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/2N 0215UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the UT day, 04 February.
The Largest flare during this period was a M1.2/2N class flare
at 04/0215UT from active region (AR) 2277 (N07W15). Note AR 2277
appears to be two separate regions. Expect solar activity to
be Moderate due to expected M and C-class flares from AR 2277.
Also expect subflares and C-class flares from ARs 2280 (S07E32)
and 2281 (N17E64). ACE solar wind observations showed a gradual
decline from approximately 580 to 420 km/s over the last 24 hours.
Expect the solar wind speed to remain just above 400 km/s over
the UT day, 05 February. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz
component ranged from +4/-5 nT and was predominantly negative.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 21113212
Cocos Island 5 12113211
Darwin 6 21123212
Townsville 7 22123212
Learmonth 6 22113212
Alice Springs 6 21113212
Norfolk Island 4 21112111
Culgoora 6 21113212
Gingin 6 11113312
Camden 7 21223212
Canberra 6 21213212
Launceston 9 22224212
Hobart 7 22223202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 9 11115202
Casey 18 34533322
Mawson 26 43333455
Davis 19 33433532
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 3422 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb 6 Quiet
07 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled in
the Australian region for the UT day, 04 February. Note periods
of Active levels observed at higher latitudes. Expect Quiet to
Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 126 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb 126 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 126 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to slightly enhanced for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 572 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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