[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 4 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Feb             05 Feb             06 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, 03 February. 
The Largest flare during this period was a C3.9/1F class flare 
at 03/1053UT from active region 2277 (N09W07). Expect solar activity 
to remain at Low levels for the UT day 04 February. ACE solar 
wind observations show high speed solar wind stream declining 
from 700 to 540 km/s over the last 24 hours. The interplanetary 
magnetic field Bz component ranged from -/+5nT. The high speed 
stream should gradually return to moderate levels over the UT 
day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   33223223
      Cocos Island         6   22212221
      Darwin               9   32222223
      Townsville          10   -3223223
      Learmonth           11   32223323
      Alice Springs       10   33222223
      Norfolk Island       7   22222222
      Culgoora            10   33222223
      Gingin              14   33233333
      Camden              11   23322323
      Canberra            12   33333222
      Launceston          15   33333333
      Hobart              13   33333322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    24   34454432
      Casey               25   45542333
      Mawson              51   55533557
      Davis               45   45544664

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb : 
      Darwin              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              41   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             22   5443 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled in 
the Australian region for the UT day, 03 February. Note periods 
of Active and Minor Storm levels observed at higher latitudes. 
Expect Quiet to Unsettled levels to prevail over the next 3 days 
as the solar wind returns to moderate speed

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Feb   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 664 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   191000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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