[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 3 10:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, 02 February. 
The Largest flare during this period was a C2.6 class Flare at 
2312UT. Expect solar activity to remain at Low levels for the 
UT day 03 February. ACE solar wind observations show high speed 
solar wind stream ranging between 500 and 780 km/s over the last 
24 hours and presently just over 600 km/s. The interplanetary 
magnetic field Bz component ranged from -/+11nT. The high speed 
stream should gradually return to moderate levels over the next 
2 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   44342332
      Cocos Island        11   33232322
      Darwin              14   43332323
      Townsville          14   33332333
      Learmonth           17   44333332
      Alice Springs       12   33332322
      Norfolk Island      16   53332232
      Culgoora            14   33332333
      Gingin              22   54343342
      Camden              18   44342333
      Canberra            16   34342332
      Launceston          23   44453333
      Hobart              18   34443332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    38   35564543
      Casey               36   56643333
      Mawson              54   56554473
      Davis               40   55553462

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb : 
      Darwin              75   (Active)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           16   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        8   (Quiet)
      Gingin             131   (Severe storm)
      Canberra            89   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   4221 1344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb    12    Unsettled
04 Feb    11    Unsettled
05 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 2 February and 
is current for 1-3 Feb. Magnetic conditions have been Unsettled 
with some isolated Active periods in the Australian region. Note 
isolated Minor Storm periods observed at higher latitudes. Expect 
Unsettled to isolated cases of Active levels to prevail over 
the next 2 days due to the elevated solar wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Feb   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to slightly elevated for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 535 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   196000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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