[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 2 10:30:45 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with the greatest flares 
over the last 24 hours being 2 C3 flares from region 2268(S11W57). 
ACE solar wind observations indicate the arrival of a high speed 
coronal hole wind stream with speed steadily increasing from 
400 to 700 km/s over the period and Bt increasing to between 
10-15nT. Bz is fluctuating within between +/- 10 nT. Solar activity 
is expected to be low with some chance of isolated M class flares 
over the coming days. The coronal hole high speed stream is expected 
to last 2-3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Unsettled with 
Active periods

Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   32332333
      Cocos Island        12   32322333
      Darwin              14   32432333
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth           14   32332334
      Alice Springs       12   22332333
      Norfolk Island      14   32322244
      Culgoora            13   22332343
      Gingin              16   32332434
      Camden              15   22432343
      Canberra            11   22322333
      Launceston          17   32432344
      Hobart              16   32432334    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    13   32232334
      Casey               43   54753344
      Mawson              65   55543368
      Davis               38   45553346

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb : 
      Darwin             107   (Major storm)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        9   (Quiet)
      Gingin              69   (Active)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1211 1213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
03 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
04 Feb    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Unsettled with some Active 
periods. These conditions are expected to continue for 2 more 
days before calming somewhat on the third day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Feb   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    98600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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