[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 2 10:30:45 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with the greatest flares
over the last 24 hours being 2 C3 flares from region 2268(S11W57).
ACE solar wind observations indicate the arrival of a high speed
coronal hole wind stream with speed steadily increasing from
400 to 700 km/s over the period and Bt increasing to between
10-15nT. Bz is fluctuating within between +/- 10 nT. Solar activity
is expected to be low with some chance of isolated M class flares
over the coming days. The coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to last 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Unsettled with
Active periods
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 32332333
Cocos Island 12 32322333
Darwin 14 32432333
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 14 32332334
Alice Springs 12 22332333
Norfolk Island 14 32322244
Culgoora 13 22332343
Gingin 16 32332434
Camden 15 22432343
Canberra 11 22322333
Launceston 17 32432344
Hobart 16 32432334
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 13 32232334
Casey 43 54753344
Mawson 65 55543368
Davis 38 45553346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 107 (Major storm)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 9 (Quiet)
Gingin 69 (Active)
Canberra 50 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1211 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Unsettled with some Active
periods. These conditions are expected to continue for 2 more
days before calming somewhat on the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 98600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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